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Title
Title:
Fertility
SubTitle:
Regional level
Filename:  
reg_fertility_rate
 
 
 
General Description
Abstract:
The total fertility rate is an estimate of the number of children an average woman would have if current age-specific fertility rates remained constant during her reproductive years. The values are estimated using demographic models based on several kinds of demographic parameters: a country's population size, age and sex distribution, fertility and mortality rates by age and sex groups, growth rates of urban and rural populations, and the levels of internal and international migration. Information collected through recent population censuses and surveys is used to calculate or estimate these parameters, but accuracy varies. The U.N. Population Division compiles and evaluates census and survey results from all countries. These data are adjusted for overenumeration and underenumeration of certain age and sex groups (e.g., infants, female children, and young males), misreporting of age and sex distributions, and changes in definitions, when necessary. These adjustments incorporate data from civil registrations, population surveys, earlier censuses, and, when necessary, population models based on information from socioeconomically similar countries. (Because the figures have been adjusted, they are not strictly comparable to the official statistics compiled by the U.N. Statistical Office and published in the Demographic Yearbook.) After the figures for population size and age/sex composition have been adjusted, these data are scaled to 1990. Similar estimates are made for each 5-year period between 1950 and 1990. Historical data are used when deemed accurate, also with adjustments and scaling. However, accurate historical data do not exist for many developing countries. In such cases, the U.N. Population Division uses available information and demographic models to estimate the main demographic parameters. Projections are based on estimates of the 1990 base-year population. Age- and sex-specific mortality rates are applied to the base-year population to determine the number of survivors at the end of each 5-year period. Births are projected by applying age-specific fertility rates to the projected female population. Births are distributed by an assumed sex ratio, and the appropriate age- and sex-specific survival rates are applied. Future migration rates are also estimated on an age- and sex-specific basis. Combining future fertility, mortality, and migration rates yields the projected population size, average annual population change, and average annual increment to the population. Assumptions about future mortality, fertility, and migration rates are made on a country-by-country basis and, when possible, are based on historical trends. Four scenarios of population growth are created by using different assumptions about fertility (high fertility, medium fertility, low fertility, and constant fertility). For example, the medium-case scenario assumes medium levels of fertility---an assumption that may vary among countries. Refer to the original source for further details. Although projections may be of questionable quality, U.N. demographic models are based on surveys and censuses with well-understood qualities, which makes these data fairly reliable. Data available on the CD-ROM World Population Prospect: The 2000 Revision prepared by the Population division, Dpartement of Economic and Social affairs. http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm
Purpose:
This entry gives a figure for the average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given fertility rate at each age. The total fertility rate is a more direct measure of the level of fertility than the crude birth rate, since it refers to births per woman. This indicator shows the potential for population growth in the country. High rates will also place some limits on the labor force participation rates for women. Large numbers of children born to women indicate large family sizes that might limit the ability of the families to feed and educate their children.
Units:
Number of Children Per Woman
GEO Theme:
Socio-Economy
GEO Data Category:   
Health
Type:
Other Documents
Subtype:
-----
Language:
English
Status:
Complete
Maintenance:
Unknown
 
 
 
Keywords
GEMET Theme:
Human health
Free Keywords:
Health, fertility rate, regional level
 
 
 
Online Reference
URL:
No reference for download
File Format:
-----
 
 
 
Spatial Reference
Coverage:
World
Coordinates:
 
North
90
 
West -180
 
180 East
 
-90
South
 
Region:
World
Subregion:
-----
Resolution:
Region
 
 
 
Temporal Reference
Covered Time:
1950-1955, 1955-1960, ..., 2045-2050
 
 
 
Responsability
Person:
Jaap Van Woerden
Organization:
UNEP/DEWA/GRID-Geneva
Address:
11, chemin des Anemones
 
 
Postal Code:
1219
City:
Chatelaine
State:
Geneva
Country:
Switzerland
Phone:
+41 22 917 82 94
Fax:
+41 22 917 80 29
Email:
geo@grid.unep.ch
 
 
Publisher:
UNEP/GRID
Publ. Place:
Geneva
 
 
Publ. Year:
2002
Data Source:
World Pop. Prosp.
Data Provider:
UN Pop. Div.
Copyright:
UNEP/GRID
User Constr.:
Public
 
 
 
Metadata Information
Person:
Gregory Giuliani
Organization:
UNEP/DEWA/GRID-Geneva
Address:
11, Chemin des Anemones
 
 
Postal Code:
1219
City:
Chatelaine
State:
Geneva
Country:
Switzerland
Phone:
+41 22 917 82 94
Fax:
+41 22 917 80 29
Email:
geo@grid.unep.ch
 
 
Date:
20020111
 
 
 
 
 
GIS Data Info
Projection:
-----
 
 
Min. Scale:
-----
Max. Scale
-----
Data Resol.:
-----
Data Format:
-----
 
 
 
Statistics Data Info
Aggregation method
Mehtod:
Weighted average
Weight factor:
Total Population
Comments:
The data is only aggregated if at least 75 % of the observations are available (i.e. % of population or % of area or % of countries) on an annual basis. The value "-9999" corresponds to "No Data"
 
Interpolations/Extrapolations
Interpolations:
None
Extrapolations:
None
Method:
Other
Comments:
-----
 
Calculated pre 1991-1992 relative country share
Former USSR:
None
Former Yugoslavia SFR:
None
Former Czechoslovakia:
None
Former Ethiopia:
None
Comments:
-----
 
General comments
Country notes:
Data for Australia include Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Norfolk Island. Data for China do not include Hong Kong. Data for Mauritius include Agalega, Rodrigues and Saint Brandon. Countries listed individually are only those with 140,000 inhabitants or more in 2000.
Definitions:
-----
Comments:
Assumptions about the future paths of fertility: Fertility assumptions are described in terms of the following groups of countries: High-fertility countries: Countries that until 2000 have had no fertility reduction or only an incipient decline; Medium-fertility countries: Countries where fertility has been declining but whose level is still above replacement level (2.1 children per woman); Low-fertility countries: Those countries with fertility at or below replacement level (2.1 children per woman) plus a few with levels very close to replacement levels that are expected to fall below replacement level in the near future. Medium-fertility assumptions: Fertility in high-fertility countries is generally assumed to decline at an average pace of nearly one child per decade starting in 2005 or later. Consequently, some of these countries do not reach replacement level by 2050. Fertility in medium-fertility countries is assumed to reach replacement level before 2050. Fertility in low-fertility countries is generally assumed to remain below replacement level during most of the projection period, reaching by 2045-2050 the fertility of the cohort of women born in the early 1960s or, if that information is lacking, reaching 1.7 children per woman if current fertility is below 1.5 children per woman or 1.9 children per woman if current fertility is equal to or higher than 1.5 children per woman. Copyright c 2002 (Aggregations) United Nations Environment Programme/DEWA/GRID-Geneva. Data aggregation made by Andrea DeBono and Ola Nordbeck (UNEP/DEWA/GRID-Geneva).